Revenue Projections Continue to Suggest Budget Troubles
Storm clouds loom over the Illinois Capitol. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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The latest Fiscal Year 2026 revenue projection from the General Assembly’s bipartisan, bicameral agency is improved, but still about three-quarters-of-a-billion below the proposed spending in Governor JB Pritzker’s budget proposal.
The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, or COGFA, released its latest projection Friday, predicting $54.5 billion in revenue in the new fiscal year that begins July 1. It’s about $260 million more than the agency’s projection in March.
But, Pritzker’s proposed spending plan from earlier this year totals $55.2 billion, leaving a hole of about $700 million.
COGFA experts projected further instability in the next fiscal year, raising further alarms for lawmakers.
COGFA Revenue Manager Eric Noggle wrote in Friday’s report, that the commission is taking a “more cautious approach” with its forecast.
“The unknown implications of tariffs create many questions related to the duration of the tariffs, their impact on prices, and if these changes could lead to a recession,” Noggle wrote. “These complicating factors and their potential impact on tax revenues make the revenue estimate for FY 2026 very challenging.”
Republicans say Democrats will have to dramatically adjust their spending priorities in the final weeks of budget negotiations.
“The Governor can’t hide his out of control spending anymore,” said Sen. Chapin Rose (R-Mahomet), the Senate Republican budget negotiator. “He’s off by almost a billion dollars after this report.”
The Governor’s office did not respond to a request for comment Monday evening.
Some Democrats we spoke to Monday were concerned how the supermajority party will be able to reach a deal on a balanced budget by May 31.
“It’s going to be a long month,” a Democratic lawmaker said.
