The Ten Legislative Seats Most Likely to Flip in November
Sen. Darby Hills (R-Barrington Hills), Rep. Martin McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills), and Rep. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett), three of the most endangered incumbents in the state in November.
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OPINION
We’re starting to get a reputation for these lists, good or bad, and we haven’t updated it since November. So, we figured now was as good of a time as any.
One notable exclusion from our last list was that of Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock). Reick absolutely would have been on this list, but his opponent failed to make the ballot. And, because of Democrats’ “Katie Stuart Protection Act” in 2024, they couldn’t slate a candidate to face Reick. Consider it a break for him.
These aren’t predictions of who will win, just races that are the most likely to flip.
Just a little context.
So, here you have it:
10. Senate District 48
Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield)
(Previous rating: 9)
On paper, this should or shouldn’t be a close race. Turner won by less than two points four years ago over appointed Rep. Sandy Hamilton in an absolute bruiser of a race. Republican Sangamon County Recorder Frank Lesko is her opponent this time. Lesko doesn’t raise a lot of money, is a little weird, but has literally never lost an election. Republicans really want to make this a race, but we’ll see if they have the money to do so. Kamala Harris won the gerrymandered Springfield-to-Decatur district by 1.2 points in 2024. Gov. Pritzker carried it by 4 in 2022.
9. House District 104
Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville)
(Previous rating: 7)
Schweizer seems to have been perpetually endangered since being appointed to the seat in December of 2023. The district is a lot tougher than the old Bill Black district thanks to the addition of many more Democratic Champaign-Urbana voters. Schweizer snuck out a victory by 269 votes over a moderate in 2024. Kamala Harris won the district by 4 points in 2024, but Gov. Pritzker only won it by 1 in 2022. Mary Catherine Roberson, a staffer for Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D-Lynwood) is the Democratic candidate. Last we heard, she hadn’t even talked to the House Democratic campaign arm yet, so we’ll see how much they get involved.
8. House District 76
Rep. Amy Murri-Briel (D-Ottawa)
(Previous rating: HM)
This is a rematch of two years ago between Murri-Briel and Republican Liz Bishop. Murri-Briel defeated Bishop by 595 votes in 2024. Republicans can hit Murri-Briel for being out of step with the district, but the GOP will need money for that message to penetrate.
7. House District 65
Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva)
(Previous rating: HM)
Rep. Dan Ugaste’s (R-Geneva) district is trending the wrong way in the long run. President Trump won the district by one point in 2024. Gov. Pritzker won it by a point in 2022. Real Estate agent and Elmhurst University professor Ricky Rivard of St. Charles isn’t setting the world on fire, but Democrats could dump a ton of money here and make a splash.
6. House District 97
Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield)
(Previous rating: HM)
Benton’s political career appears to be in shambles. He was kicked out of the House Democratic caucus for allegations of sexual harassment, so he likely won’t have their money behind him in November (one would assume). He was dragged across the finish line two years ago by over a million dollars from House Dems in broadcast TV ads in the last week or two before Election Day. He faces Republican Gabby Shanahan in a 2024 rematch that Benton won by around 2,300 votes. Republicans believe this is their best (or, potentially, only pickup option in November). Harris won the district by 4 in 2024. Pritzker won it by 7 in 2022.
5. Senate District 24
Sen. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett)
(Previous rating: 5)
The result in this district could have more to do with what kind of caucus Senate President Don Harmon wants in Springfield. The Democratic candidate, Ben McAdams of Bloomingdale, is super liberal. But the district is moving left. Kamala Harris won it by three points two years ago. Gov. Pritzker won it by 5 in 2022. We’ll see if Harmon and team put a ton of cash into this race.
4. House District 52
Rep. Martin McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills)
(Previous rating: 3)
Through much of 2024 and since, McLaughlin seemed like a bit of a political dead man walking. He was hugely outspent and has done some politically…awkward…things. But he held on by 47 votes two years ago. He has a rematch of 2024 against Democrat Maria Peterson, who wasn’t the choice of Democrats this time around. He’s super vulnerable, but dropped one spot thanks to the power of incumbency.
3. Senate District 33
OPEN (DeWitte)
(Previous rating: 4)
Sen. Don DeWitte’s (R-St. Charles) retirement may have been the worst possible thing for Senate Republicans this cycle. Democrats got their preferred candidate in Michele Clark. Republicans didn’t. Harris won the district by 2, Pritzker by 5 in 2022. A lot of Republicans are starting to feel like this one is slipping away.
2. Senate District 26
Sen. Darby Hills (R-Barrington Hills)
(Previous rating: 2)
The demographics couldn’t be much worse for Republicans in this district. Kamala Harris won the district by almost 10 points two years ago. Governor Pritzker won it by 11 in 2022. And Democrats got their candidate in Rep. Nabeela Syed (D-Palatine). This one may not be on ice yet, but it isn’t on a good track for the GOP.
1. House District 47
OPEN (Grant)
(Previous rating: 1)
How Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) kept overperforming and saving herself is one of the wonders of recent legislative politics. She’s out, and Democrats are super confident they’re going to take it back. Wheaton City Council member Erica Bray-Parker is considered one of the top recruits of the cycle while Republicans recruited small business owner Robert Vrankovich of Carol Stream. Harris won the district by 11 points in 2024. Gov. Pritzker won it by 8 in 2022. This is starting to feel like it’s in the Democratic column already.
Dropped out of top ten: Sen. Erica Harriss (R-Glen Carbon) [10], Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) [8], Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock) [6]
Districts to keep an eye on: Harriss, Rep. Jennifer Sanalitro (R-Hanover Park), Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt), Stuart, Sen. Craig Wilcox (R-McHenry)
