Top Ten Legislative Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2026
House Republican Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) and Senate Republican Leader John Curran (R-Downers Grove) have multiple incumbents at risk of losing seats next year. (Photo: Illinois House Republicans)
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OPINION
We’ve done these before, and sometimes, like last year, no seats flipped, so it didn’t really matter in the end.
This will not look great for Republicans, as you may imagine.
It’s worth mentioning both Senate GOP Leader John Curran (R-Downers Grove) and Rep. Sharon Chung (D-Bloomington) likely would have landed on this list, but they both skated by petition filing without an opponent.
These aren’t predictions of who will win, just races that are the most likely to flip.
Just a little context.
So, here you have it:
10. Senate District 56
Sen. Erica Harriss (R-Glen Carbon)
Harriss took the longtime Democrat sat in the Metro East away in 2022. President Trump won the district by two points last year. Darren Bailey won it by 5 in 2022. Civil engineer Marsia Geldert-Murphey and Edwardsville Township Supervisor Kevin Hall are in the Democratic primary. Harriss filed with around $131,000 in the bank at the end of September. If Democrats feel like the conditions are right, they may dump a ton of cash into this district.
9. Senate District 48
Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield)
There won’t be a lot of Democrats on this list, just to prepare you. Turner won by less than two points four years ago over appointed Rep. Sandy Hamilton. Republicans have turned to Sangamon County Recorder Frank Lesko, who doesn’t raise a lot of money and isn’t a great campaigner by traditional standards, but has literally never lost an election. If Republicans can scrape up enough money, this could be their best chance to flip a seat in the Senate next year.
8. House District 112
Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville)
Stuart showed up around this spot in our lists last year and ended up winning by 10 points, so this may be a big ole waste of a ranking spot. Republicans have turned to O’Fallon City Council member Jimmy Ford to challenge Stuart. He runs a repo company, so that’ll surely be an issue. Kamala Harris (+7) in 2024 actually overperformed Governor Pritzker’s 2022 number (+2), which shows it may be a little tighter this year. This is one of the few competitive districts in the state where changing demographics actually helps Republicans.
7. House District 104
Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville)
After not raising a ton of money and a changing electorate around Champaign-Urbana left many people (ahem, me) sort of writing Schweizer, a relatively unknown appointed incumbent, an early political obituary last year. Kamala Harris won the district by 4 points last year, but Gov. Pritzker only won it by 1 in 2022. Mary Catherine Roberson, a staffer for Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D-Lynwood) is the Democratic candidate.
6. House District 63
Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock)
The trend is not in the GOP favor in this Cary, McHenry, and Woodstock-centered district. Reick is a notoriously terrible fundraiser (he had $7,000 in the bank on September 30. but has raised about $3,500 in large donations since then.) Reick won his race last year by about six points. Democrats seem to like their candidate, retired teacher Brian Meyers from Crystal Lake.
5. Senate District 24
Sen. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett)
I’m not so sure that Democrats are crazy about their candidate, law student Ben McAdams of Bloomingdale, but they feel very good about the way the DuPage County-based 24th District is moving. Kamala Harris won it by three points last year. Gov. Pritzker won it by 5 in 2022. This could be one where Democrats end up dumping a ton of money if the conditions are right. If McAdams doesn’t prove to be serious, he could move down or off this list pretty quickly.
4. Senate District 33
OPEN (DeWitte)
The retirement of Sen. Don DeWitte (R-St. Charles) is a big loss for Republicans in this far west suburban district. Each side has a competitive primary, so candidate quality of the eventual nominee will dictate whether this race moves up or down the list. Kamala Harris (+2) slightly underperformed Gov. Pritzker’s 2022 numbers in the district (+5). I’m told Democrats believe this district is ripe for he taking.
3. House District 52
Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills)
How many times did we write off McLaughlin in 2024? He was hugely outspent, he had some…awkward…allies, and Kamala Harris was expected to pound President Trump in that district (she matched Biden’s 2020 margin.) Still, McLaughlin held on to win by 47 votes. Democrats have a competitive primary, so we’ll see how bruised the eventual nominee comes out for this race.
2. Senate District 26
Sen. Darby Hills (R-Barrington Hills)
Hills not only has to defend McLaughlin’s tight half of the district, but has to defend the more liberal-leaning district currently held by Rep. Nabeela Syed (D-Inverness). And, as luck would have it, Syed, a rising star in Democratic politics, is challenging Hills for the seat. Hills has some personal wealth to spend on this race, but it could be gigantically expensive for both sides. Kamala Harris won the district by 10 points in 2024. Gov. Pritzker won it by 11 in 2022. Democrats feel really good about the pickup opportunity.
1. House District 47
OPEN (Grant)
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton) had more political lives than a house cat. Now that she’s stepping aside, Democrats feel like they’re finally going to be able to win the longtime GOP seat in DuPage County. Wheaton City Council member Erica Bray-Parker is considered one of the top recruits of the cycle while Republicans recruited small business owner Robert Vrankovich of Carol Stream. Harris won the district by 11 points last year. Gov. Pritzker won it by 8 in 2022. With the GOP’s money woes, this could very easily swing to the Democrats.
Districts to keep an eye on: Sen. Mike Halpin (D-Moline), Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield), Rep. Amy Murri-Briel (D-Ottawa), Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva), Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt).
