Things Aren't Going Well for Darren Bailey
Darren Bailey leaves the stage after conceding the 2022 gubernatorial election. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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OPINION
I can’t say I’m one for prediction markets as a scientific exercise in campaign analysis, but they’re an indicator of “vibes” in our politics.
Let’s just say, right now, the vibes ain’t great for Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey. Kalshi gives Bailey a 5.4% chance to win in November. Polymarket gives him just a 1.8% chance to win.
Governor Pritzker has dumped $65 million into his campaign this fall and has pumped a total of $90 million of his massive personal wealth into his third campaign for Governor since launching his re-election quest in June of 2025.
Political ad tracker “AdImpact” says Pritzker has outspent Bailey on ads $16 million to $100,000.
From everything I've been able to glean from private polling in the past few months, Pritzker’s approval numbers are…ok. They're not as strong as some may expect, but he's not nearly in any danger of being defeated by a generic Republican, much less one as underperforming as Bailey.
Bailey simply hasn't raised enough money to be competitive. He raised $1.3 million in the second quarter of the year and has since raised around $180,000 in large donations and loaned his campaign another $50,000.
There are plenty of legislative candidates who raise that much or more.
While Bailey pledged he was a brand new man following the March primary and that he was focused on the so-called “80/20” issues facing the state, his campaign has given voters nearly no policy reason to get on board with him.
Governor Pritzker is clearly vulnerable on property taxes, which he has repeatedly dismissed as a “local issue.” But it's the state that writes the laws that govern the property tax system. Bailey's only property tax proposal is a 1% cap that he's never once outlined a way to pay for.
His only public safety positions are banning Flock cameras, police vehemently disagree with him on, and that he'll repeal the SAFE-T Act by executive fiat on his first day in office. Good luck in the courts with that one.
He also can't help himself with the trivia. Instead of taking direct aim at Pritzker at the State Fair, he was mired in controversy over whether the Christian school he helped found in his home county taught a version of “young earth creationism” that believes humans and dinosaurs walked the earth at the same time. He still hasn't denied he shares that belief.
But the biggest orange cloud killing Bailey’s chances is President Donald Trump. Bailey has been an unabashed Trump supporter and has done a poor job separating himself from the political cinder block tied around his ankles. I've seen some polling about Trump's standing in the suburbs and, ouch. Bailey already lost every collar county (except for McHenry) in 2022 and Trump is doing him no favors this time around.
The biggest problem for Bailey is that while he's weakly tried to distance himself from Trump, nobody believes it. A tiger doesn't change its stripes. I can tell you I'm done with the Cubs, but you won't believe it because there's 40 years of fandom in my record.
It makes Bailey a non-starter for the moderate, independent, suburban voters he has to convince to join him if he ever hopes to turn around the half-million vote loss he took on the chin four years ago.
The only people that seem to give Bailey a punchers chance are the trolls in my inbox who live in the southern third of the state and haven't spoken to a Democrat since the mid-50’s.
Without a major financial benefactor (Richard Uihlein spent millions in Bailey's behalf on 2022 and nada this time around), Bailey is on a political Bataan Death March to a November drubbing that would make Dawn Clark Netsch’s 1994 campaign cringe.
Republicans should start preparing for the worst.
