Democrat Insiders Split on Senate Primary
Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D-Lynwood), Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), and Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton pose for a photo before a joint forum at a union hall last year.
You think you don’t know how the Democratic Senate race is going to turn out?
You aren’t alone.
The Illinoize spoke with dozens of current and former lawmakers, municipal leaders, lobbyists, operatives, and progressive activists and asked them “who wins the Senate race and why?” We allowed them to respond to our question anonymously to speak freely on the race.
The answers were all over the board.
One of the few things nearly every respondent agreed on was that nobody is winning this race in blowout fashion, and the general belief is it’s a two person race, between Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton, with Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D-Lynwood) trailing behind.
“It will be close,” said a mayor.
Many Democrats we spoke to who believe Krishnamoorthi will win boil their argument down to the almighty dollar. Krishnamoorthi has spent around $25 million on TV ads since last summer.
“Given the amount of money and time that Raja has been on TV, I think he wins,” said a longtime Democratic operative. “The only thing that could upset the apple cart is how much influence Juliana has south of I-80 with the Governor’s backing.”
“Raja will win because the other candidates will split up Chicago and Cook County, said another Democratic insider. “Raja is the only one with a presence outside of Chicago.”
“My guess is Raja Krishnamoorthi wins,” said another insider. “Despite some setbacks, he was up early and consistently, building name ID for months and months. Stratton didn’t start in a big way until too late, and her campaign [messaging] was confusing on things like outside money.”
“Raja has run a good campaign,” said a former lawmaker. “Robin [Kelly] didn’t raise any money. Stratton ran a terrible campaign. Without Pritzker she has next to nothing.
“I think Raja holds on, but not by much,” said a lobbyist. “That big early lead seals it for him.”
There is also a belief Stratton and Kelly either split the African American vote or that Kelly siphons votes away from Stratton.
A large number of Democrats we spoke to believe Stratton has closed the gap and overtaken Krishnamoorthi in recent days.
“At first, I figured it would be Raja due to [his strength in the] suburbs and so much money,” said a municipal official. But, now, Juliana has really made a dent and of course, she has the Governor’s money that helped her get across the finish line.”
“Juliana closed strong,” said a Democratic lawmaker. “Raja’s support is soft and I don’t think Kelly doesn’t get enough votes to spoil it for Stratton.”
“Raja just ran out of steam,” said a Democratic operative. “I think Juliana pulls it off by 2 points.”
“I think she has a base and having [Gov. Pritzker]supporting her and campaigning with her gives her that edge that she needs to be successful tomorrow,” said another insider. “It will be close, though.”
“I’m going with Juliana,” said a lobbyist. “She has really come on strong and Raja flatlined. He doesn’t have the charisma and the passionate support that she does. He just has money and that’s not enough, it takes much more!”
A large number of respondents making Stratton predictions came down to momentum. They say she has it, and Krishnamoorthi doesn’t.
“Stratton wins,” said a lobbyist. “Raja’s support has always been mile wide and an inch deep. She’s had the momentum for at least the last three weeks and I always like a candidate that is surging at the end. They usually cross the finish line.”
Numerous insiders we spoke to spoke glowingly of Kelly, but none believed she was in a position to sneak between Stratton and Krishnamoorthi to pull off an upset.
“I think the one thing that’s for sure is that Robin will not win,” said a lawmaker. “That reality alone makes this race more complicated.”
My hope is Robin Kelly, but I fear it may be Raja,” said a former lawmaker. “There’s too much unchecked money in politics.”
As we enter the “wait and see” portion of the campaign Tuesday, one lawmaker may have summed up the race up best.
“It’s honestly easier to predict what won’t happen in this race than what will,” the lawmaker said. “No matter how this shakes out, this race is going to generate a lot of “what ifs” on Wednesday.”
