Your Questions...Answered!
Then-Sen. Darren Bailey and Gov. JB Pritzker debate at Illinois State University in Normal in 2022. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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OPINION
I like to periodically open it up to your questions. Thanks to all who submitted. We’re not going to use any names to protect identities and employers and biases and all that stuff. Don’t worry, there is plenty of opinion to be found here.
How much does Pritzker beat Bailey by in November?
Gosh. If the election were held today, a lot.
I’ve seen some projections by some nerds out there that Pritzker would beat Bailey by 20, but that didn’t account for the Independent in the race. Pro-Bailey folks are hinting the race is within grasp, but pro-Pritzker people have generally chuckled at that insinuation. Add the fact that Bailey hasn’t really improved his standing in the suburbs and can’t start blitzing on TV and he’s just a sitting duck for when the Pritzker folks start unloading negative ads on him.
Will there be debates?
I’m under the impression Bailey and Corbett are in for any TV invitation. I asked the Pritzker campaign yesterday and they just responded “More to come soon.” I can’t imagine Pritzker’s ego will allow him not to smack Bailey around on a stage. So, we’ll see.
Is Bailey or Pritzker more likely to lose votes to Independent Gubernatorial candidate Collin Corbett?
As always, disclosure that Corbett and I are personal friends, and I treat him like any other candidate. Just watch our interview last week and you’ll see he didn’t get any friends and family discount.
The logic would tell you Bailey, of course, as a former Republican who split from the party because he sees Bailey, essentially, as an unelectable goof. But, and I don’t have polling to back this up, I wonder if there is a lane for suburban moderates who would never vote for Bailey and don’t want to vote for Pritzker (and probably did in 2022) that would look for another option this time around.
Why is Corbett running for Governor? You know him, he has to know he can’t win.
To be honest, I don’t know if it’s about winning or losing. They keep talking about building a “movement,” but we’ll have to see if there’s anything to grow after November 3.
Can you give me a scenario where Bailey wins?
The economy nationally does a complete 180 and Ken Griffin writes him a check for $50 million. Don’t see either of those happening.
I listen to your radio show. You’re pretty mean to both parties. Do you have a harder time working with Republicans or Democrats when you criticize them?
Well, thank you for listening. Generally, most grown ups in politics don’t hold grudges for criticism, especially if it’s based on a policy position or a political strategy. I really never try to let it get personal. It’s the supporters that get most riled up. I can criticize the Governor all day, but if I say one cross word about Donald Trump, the MAGA’s fill up my inbox. Not quite as bad on the other side, but I’ve been called a “pedophile protector” when I gave a monologue criticizing Democrats in Congress…the same day I criticized Trump. So, yeah.
I’m particularly interested in what you think about the chance the 97th House will flip and whether GOP leadership will commit to putting serious money into the race to make Shanahan as competitive as possible.
It may be their only pickup opportunity in November. I know Republicans are super high on Shanahan, and they should be, she’s a really good candidate. I just don’t know that they’ll have enough money to compete, especially if Speaker Welch is looking to make a statement in that district.
If Welch doesn’t make it through this scandal, who is the next Speaker?
First of all, unless there’s some more stuff to come out, I don’t expect Welch to resign or get ousted. If he is forced out for some reason, keep your eyes on Rep. Ann Williams (D-Chicago), Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago), or Rep. Jay Hoffman (D-Swansea), especially if there’s a placeholder through the next election.
If Republicans lose seats in the House and Senate in November, are McCombie and Curran toast?
I think the question is “how bad does it have to get?” If House Republicans lose 3 or 4 seats, yeah, it’s probably not good for McCombie. I think, as of today, Senate Republicans are likely to lose two seats (DeWitte’s open seat and Hills), but I don’t know that there’s a credible challenger in the caucus.
Who is the favorite to win the Chicago Mayor’s race?
It’s Giannoulias, for now. But he’s going to have to put some meet on the bone. Mendoza is probably the most ready on day one, but we’ll see if that matters to voters.
As somebody with one foot in the Chicago region and one foot downstate, what do you think could lead to a more unified Illinois? Is the prospect of unity too impossible to bother discussing?
I think it would take a real, unifying moderate voice. Probably a downstate moderate Democrat type, but I don’t know if that person exists. But the north vs. south dynamic is nothing new and between tribalism and identity politics, there’s not a lot of room for coming together.
