What Does a Three Way Race for Governor Look Like?
GOP nominee for Governor Darren Bailey, Independent candidate Collin Corbett, and Gov. JB Pritzker.
The likely entrance of former Republican political strategist-turned-independent Collin Corbett in the race for Governor has raised eyebrows in political circles and has led to mixed reactions, especially from Republicans, about the viability of a third party candidate in the race in November. And, can Corbett gain enough traction to join Gov. JB Pritzker and Republican nominee Darren Bailey on the debate stage this fall?
Independents have fared poorly in efforts to make a dent in the gubernatorial race in Illinois in recent years. Then-Sen. Sam McCann ran a union-funded, anti-Rauner, “Conservative Party” race in 2018 and captured around 4% of the vote. Pawnbroker Scott Lee Cohen, who was pushed out of the Lt. Governor slot by Democrats after a slew of opposition research came to light in 2010, ran as an independent for Governor that fall and captured around 4% of the vote. Green Party candidate Rich Whitney had the most success in the past two decades, capturing over 10% of the vote statewide in 2026.
Former Republican Rep. Mark Batinick, now a pollster and pension policy advisor for the Illinois Policy Institute, sees positives in Corbett’s effort.
“It’s probably a positive for political discourse,” Batinick said. “He will do a good job holding Pritzker accountable, that is, provided if he gets enough funding. I think he could also help out down ballot Republicans, especially in the suburbs.”
Many establishment Republicans are pushing back on Corbett’s effort, including former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady, who led the party from 2009-2013.
“Honestly, for the life of me, this makes no sense. I don’t know how he thinks somebody with zero name ID can make any difference in the race,” Brady said. “When you run as an independent, first of all, you lose all of your Republican support. They’re never going to go with you and the Democrats don’t trust you. So this guy comes out of nowhere with no background for this office and he’s going to be the savior and they’re all going to flock to him? I don’t think it works that way.”
But, another former state Republican chair had a more optimistic view of the independent effort.
Tim Schneider, a former Cook County Board member who was chair of the state party from 2014-2021 said voters are seeking a moderate option which, he believes, they find in Corbett and running mate Carolyn Schofield.
“I am and have always been a Republican, but it seems in Illinois our party has gone too far to the right and the Democrats have gone too far to the left, leaving the vast majority of Illinoisans looking for an alternative,” Schneider said. Voters want common sense, they want problem solvers and, I think they want fiscal conservatives. In my mind that’s Collin and Carolyn.”
(Disclosure: Corbett is a longtime friend who will be covered like any other candidate in this race.)
We’re told phone lines have been blowing up, especially in Republican circles in recent days, as GOP insiders try to ascertain what Corbett’s impact could be in the race. Multiple sources say those predictions vary from being a “death knell” to Bailey, to a “widowmaker” for the Illinois GOP. No Republicans we’ve spoken to in recent days believe the effort helps Bailey. Democrats we’ve spoken to say they believe it only helps split the GOP electorate and secures a larger win for Gov. Pritzker.
But a former GOP County chairman, who asked not to be identified, said there’s a real opportunity to break through the two party silos.
“This is a great opportunity for people to hear from a candidate who isn’t going to parrot a party line, but instead reminds us all what common sense and good government can do,” the insider said.
As for his potential opponents, they aren’t saying much about the potential campaign.
The Pritzker campaign declined to comment. Jose Durbin, Bailey’s campaign manager, replied with a “who?”
