Some Republicans Fear Major Losses as Fall Campaign Begins
Senate Republican Leader John Curran (R-Downers Grove) at the Illinois State Fair in 2023. House Republican Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) at the Illinois State Fair in 2026. (Photos: Chicago Tribune)
With 60 days to the November 3 General Election, some Republican insiders around the state believe the GOP is in a place to overcome the unpopularity of President Donald Trump in Illinois, while others fear Trump, the underperformance of gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey, and the money dominance of Democrats is shaping up to present a “doomsday” scenario for Republican legislative candidates.
Some Republican insiders believe a wave election for Democrats where Bailey loses significantly worse to Pritzker than he did in 2022 could result in huge losses across the board for the GOP. Some insiders say House Republicans could lose as many as six seats while Senate Republicans could lose as many as five if the environment turns truly sour.
In the Senate, Republicans fear losing the open seat being vacated by Sen. Don DeWitte (R-St. Charles), and those of Sen. Darby Hills (R-Barrington Hills), and Sen. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett). In a wave, they fear Sen. Craig Wilcox (R-McHenry), and Sen. Erica Harriss (R-Glen Carbon) could get caught up.
In the House, many Republicans already fear the open seat being vacated by Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton), and the seat of Rep. Martin McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills) are at risk of flipping to Democrats. Depending on how bad things get, they are concerned about Rep. Jennifer Sanalitro (R-Hanover Park), Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva), Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt), and Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville).
Most Republican insiders we spoke to don’t believe any wave will be as bad as it was for the GOP in 2018, when Democrats had a net gain of seven seats in the House and three in the Senate.
“It’s a combination of the national environment, poor statewide Republican infrastructure, a bad top of the ticket, and a lack of fundraising at the caucus level,” the GOP operative said. “All of those factors could come together to make it a bad [cycle] for Republicans.”
Suburban Republicans are specifically concerned about Bailey’s likely performance in the suburbs. Bailey lost DuPage County by 15 points and lost suburban Cook County by 34 points.
“Could that be worse this time? Absolutely,” said another GOP operative. “Bailey has less money, less organization, and has Trump weighing him down. It could be a bloodbath.”
Much of the GOP struggle comes down to money.
“The lack of fundraising is going to make it so they’re just not going to have the ability to respond adequately,” one Republican operative said. “If you’re a [senate candidate] and you’ve got $3 million from Senate Dems and millions of dollars from JB [Pritzker] dumped on you, how do you overcome that?”
The operative pointed out Senate Republican Leader John Curran (R-Downers Grove) raised $74,000 in the second quarter of the year while Senate President Don Harmon raised around $1.2 million.
“There is no way to make that a rosy picture,” the operative said.”
In a conversation at the Illinois State Fair last month, Curran said the situation isn’t nearly as bleak for Republicans as some may believe.
“What Republicans have going for us is people are becoming more aware, more alarmed at the extremism that is sprouting up in the Democratic Party and these DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) elections around the country and some of these primary wins,” Curran said. “That is something that is giving pause to people when they think about going in for the Democrats.”
Curran said Senate Republican polling in targeted districts is bad for Trump, but not “bleeding down” to other GOP candidates.
“I don’t believe President Trump is going to be a drag in our targeted districts,” he said. “But we need to talk about Illinois. We don’t need to talk about Washington, D.C. We don’t need to talk about President Trump.”
The Senate Republican campaign arm did not return a call regarding their concern about down ballot races.
It appears House Republicans are more bullish, though.
Sources say House GOP polling is strong in contested races and they believe local candidates will overcome any national or statewide drags on the ticket.
They even point to two potential pickups that could blunt losses. House Republicans believe Liz Bishop is there best opportunity to pick up a seat over Rep. Amy Murri Briel (D-Ottawa), a race Bishop lost by about 500 votes in 2024. They also believe Gabby Shanahan can beat appointed Rep. Jessica Dixon Heitman (D-Plainfield), who replaced former Rep. Harry Benton, who resigned as a result of a sexual harassment scandal. Though, they believe, Benton would have been an easier opponent in November.
House Republican Organization Political Director Mark Cavers says Democrats have been navigating the fallout from Benton’s scandal and House Speaker Chris Welch’s role in it, while Republicans are working their districts.
“House Republican members and candidates have built strong local brands, knocked tens of thousands of doors, and are making the case for a better life for Illinois families through conservative reforms that lower property taxes, reduce costs, and restore honest government,” he said. “Democrats can keep defending the status quo and recycling the same tired attacks. We’ll keep knocking doors, earning votes, and delivering results.”
Some Republicans also believe Gov. JB Pritzker, in his effort to secure a third term, won’t be as helpful to down ballot Democrats than he was in 2018 and 2022.
“JB doesn’t have any coattails,” said a former Republican lawmaker. “He’s not that popular even with moderates, independents, even some Democrats. People aren’t just going to be rushing to the polls because of JB Pritzker.”
