The Ten Legislative Seats Most Likely to Flip Tonight
Vulnerable Republicans Sen. Darby Hills (R-Barrington Hills, Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville), Rep. Martin McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills), and Sen. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett).
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OPINION
We haven’t updated this since June, so what better day than Election Day?
These aren’t predictions of who will win, just races that are the most likely to flip.
Just a little context.
So, here you have it:
10. House District 97
Rep. Jessica Dixon Heitman (D-Plainfield)
(Previous rating: 6)
The last time we did this list, then-Rep. Harry Benton was still in office and still embroiled in scandal. He’s gone and has been replaced by Rep. Jessica Dixon Heitman (D-Plainfield). Dixon Heitman has improved considerably since getting the seat and is a favorite to win. Republicans are holding out hope for Gabby Shanahan, who lost a tight race two years ago, to pull an upset. They could use a pickup in this environment (you’ll see if you keep reading.)
9. House District 65
Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva)
(Previous rating: 7)
Ugaste has improved his standing a little, but he has dropped on the list mostly because of how many Republicans are in huge trouble. Democrats are spending money on realtor Ricky Rivard. This feels like a coin flip.
8. House District 48
Rep. Jennifer Sanalitro (R-Hanover Park)
(Previous rating: NR)
This wasn’t on a lot of radars until the “blue wave” started building this fall and Democrats started spending some cash on Amanda Zahorak. If this one goes, Sanalitro is swept out by the wave.
7. Senate District 56
Sen. Erica Harriss (R-Glen Carbon)
(Previous rating: NR)
Democrats have gone in big for their candidate in the race, Marsie Geldert-Murphey. This race fell off our list the last time we updated it last summer, but Democrats are making a late push. Senate Dems shifted money to get Harriss on broadcast TV to, as it was described to me “stop the bleeding.” This has gone downhill quickly for the Senate GOP.
6. Senate District 24
Sen. Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett)
(Previous rating: 5)
Republicans are unloading everything but the kitchen sink to save Lewis, who is at risk of losing his seat to a candidate, Ben McAdams, that Senate Democrats have hardly lifted a finger to win. The SGOP could outspend Democrats 30:1 in this race by the time everything is tallied. Talk about a wave.
5. House District 52
Rep. Martin McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills)
(Previous rating: 4)
House Republicans feel better about this race than many other observers do. House Democrats think the district is ready to flip. McLaughlin held on by 47 votes two years ago, but how much better will Pritzker do in the district compared to Kamala Harris two years ago.
4. House District 104
Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville)
(Previous rating: 9)
This one got messy for Republicans in a hurry. Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville) held on for a 269 vote win two years ago. Mary Catherine Roberson, a staffer for Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D-Lynwood) is the Democratic candidate. We reported in June she hadn’t even talked to the House Democratic campaign arm, but House Dems got involved and both sides are on broadcast TV. Harris likely underperformed Pritzker in the district, so Republicans are very concerned.
3. Senate District 26
Sen. Darby Hills (R-Barrington Hills)
(Previous rating: 2)
The demographics couldn’t be much worse for Republicans in this district and Republicans haven’t run a great race on top of it. It’s one of two districts that Senate Republicans have pulled out of, but there’s an outside group spending big money to damage Rep. Nabeela Syed (D-Palatine), the Democratic candidate, in the final days.
2. Senate District 33
OPEN (DeWitte)
(Previous rating: 3)
Senate Republicans have pulled out of the race to replace retiring Sen. Don DeWitte’s (R-St. Charles). Democrats have spent heavily in the district. It’s likely gone.
1. House District 47
OPEN (Grant)
(Previous rating: 1)
House Republicans ceded this seat to Democrats weeks ago (even if they don’t admit it). If Erica Bray-Parker isn’t State Representative in January, we’re quittin’ showbiz.
Dropped out of top ten: Rep. Amy Murri Briel (D-Ottawa) [8], Sen. Doris Turner (D-Springfield) [10]
Districts to keep an eye on: Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt), Sen. Craig Wilcox (R-McHenry)
Previously listed, now considered safe: Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville), Rep. Steve Reick (R-Woodstock)
