He's the Favorite, But is Pritzker's Re-Election Inevitable?
Governor JB Pritzker speaks after winning re-election in 2022. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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OPINION
As Governor JB Pritzker embarks on a campaign for a third term Thursday, he’s widely considered an odds-on favorite to become the first Governor to win a third full term since Jim Thompson nearly 40 years ago.
He has a lot going for him: he’s a strong campaigner, stays on message, has a very effective campaign apparatus, and literal billions he doesn’t hesitate to throw at his campaigns (or his opponent’s campaigns.)
But just how strong is Pritzker’s position to win re-election?
In a May poll from Chicago-based pollster M3 Strategies, Pritzker’s favorable/unfavorable is at 51%-46%, which is obviously close, but an approval over 50% is considered to be strong for his re-election chances.
What pollsters pointed out to me though was the intensity of Pritzker’s support. His “strongly favorable” view, his most ardent supporters, are at 36%, while those who rate his performance “strongly unfavorable” at 41%.
It makes one wonder if the intensity of Pritzker’s support follows the old adage of “a mile wide and an inch deep.”
Certainly, there aren’t a lot of people who objectively believe life is grand in the state right now. Income taxes are high, property taxes are higher, corruption continues to rage in the headlines, large companies continue their exodus, it’s nearly impossible to afford to send our kids to college, and cost of living remains through the roof.
It ain’t sunshine and unicorns out there.
The best thing going for Pritzker may be the absolute disarray of Illinois Republicans.
So far, the only announced candidate in the race is DuPage County Sheriff Jim Mendrick, who has not been particularly visible as a candidate thus far and had about $76,000 cash on hand at the end of March. (Though he has done some fundraising since then, we’ll see his latest report next month.)
But other candidates looking at getting in the race don’t set the world on fire, either. Rep. Dan Ugaste (R-Geneva) is a serious and thoughtful guy, but doesn’t seem like someone that would catch fire statewide. Ted Dabrowski of media company Wirepoints doesn’t particularly inspire. Cook County GOP Chair Aaron Del Mar reportedly has some baggage, and Freedom Caucus Rep. Blaine Wilhour (R-Beecher City) is a non-starter in the suburbs.
You can’t beat someone with nobody, and until Republicans find a serious candidate who can raise money, appeal to downstate and suburban voters, and has at least a shred of charisma on the campaign trail, then Pritzker’s re-election may just be a shoo-in.
