Handicapping the Congressional Primaries
Evanston Mayor and 9th Congressional District candidate Daniel Biss. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
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OPINION
We’ve spent a lot of time over the past few days talking with insiders and operatives and elected officials about conditions on the ground for the state’s major congressional primaries. Most of the seats are heavily Democratic and one GOP primary exists in a…maybe…probably…but kind of not likely competitive district. Here are our takeaways with just under seven weeks to go until the March 17 primary.
Here are some quick takeaways on the ongoing congressional primary races
2nd District
Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D-Lynwood) isn’t seeking re-election as she runs for U.S. Senate. This sprawling, silly, gerrymandered district includes such communities of interest as Kenwood, Jackson Park, and Hegewisch in the city limits as well as Kankakee, Pontiac, Watseka, Rantoul, and Danville. (Don’t get me started.)
Sen. Robert Peters (D-Chicago), the super progressive high profile state senator, hit the ground running in the race but hasn’t felt inevitable by any means. Sen. Willie Preston (D-Chicago) has picked up steam at times but isn’t running a conventional campaign. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller is up on TV, which is likely to have an impact. The wild card in the race is the return of former Congressman and previous guest of the Federal Bureau of Prisons, Jesse Jackson Jr., who is attempting to reclaim the seat he resigned from 14 years ago.
“Nobody has a great read on what JJJ actually does to the race,” a southside insider texted last week. “Is all name ID good name ID? I guess we’ll find out.”
Favorite: Toss Up
7th District
Congressman Danny Davis (D-Chicago) is vacating the district that covers much of downtown Chicago and shoots west to Oak Park and Westchester and south from downtown to Chinatown and Englewood. It seems to be a two way race between Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago), who has Davis’ endorsement.
Conyears-Ervin has some…ahem…questionable…ads up and has some real baggage that could drag her down in the minds of voters. I’m told Ford is well known and well liked in the district, but hasn’t raised a ton of cash.
Favorite: Conyears-Ervin, just a little bit
8th District
Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) is attempting to move up to the Senate, leaving his northwest suburban district open. The district includes Rosemont, Des Plaines, Carol Stream, Schaumburg, South Barrington, and Elgin.
Sen. Cristina Castro (D-Elgin) was expected to get in the race and was the likely favorite, but she took a pass on the last minute. It has left the race a little bit jumbled. Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison was seen as an early favorite. Venture capitalist Neil Khot has been up on TV and former Congresswoman Melissa Bean, who lost the seat in a red wave in 2010, is in the race, too.
“Anybody who tells you they know where this one is going is lying,” said one area Democrat. “I honestly have no idea how this turns out.”
Kamala Harris only won the district by about seven points in 2024, which has left some Republicans confident they can make a run at the seat without Krishnamoorthi’s cash in the race.
Businessman Mark Rice, who lost to Krishnamoorthi two years ago, faces business owner Jennifer Davis. Davis is seen as the preferred candidate of much of the GOP establishment and Rice has had a tendency to put his foot in his mouth previously. It sounds like both campaigns are kind of a mess.
Dem Favorite: Toss Up
GOP Favorite: Jennifer Davis
9th District
It’s almost like Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss has been positioning himself for this seat ever since losing the Democratic primary for Governor in 2018. Imagine his dismay when a 26-year-old social media personality, Kat Abughazaleh, sucked up so much of the oxygen in the race from the start.
Sen. Laura Fine (D-Glenview) is giving up her seat in Springfield for the race and has elevated toward the top of the field, sort of a distant third. Other notable lawmakers like Sen. Mike Simmons (D-Chicago), who is midterm, and Rep. Hoan Huynh (D-Chicago), who is giving up his House seat, have seemingly failed to catch any fire.
This is a big, messy, jumbled primary, but most insiders expect Biss to get a plurality.
Favorite: Daniel Biss
There are GOP primaries in the 6th (Casten), 11th (Foster), 13th (Budzinski), and 17th (Sorensen), but none of the races appear competitive for November at this point.
