Is Bailey Improving in the Suburbs?
Former Senator Darren Bailey the morning after the 2026 primary in Naperville. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
Four years ago, then-Sen. Darren Bailey lost the race for Governor in Cook County’s Maine Township by 18 points. The formerly Republican stronghold is made up of communities like Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Niles, Glenview, and Rosemont.
Bruce Rauner won Maine Township with 56% in 2014.
It was one of the many indicators showing how far the GOP brand had fallen in the suburbs.
Nearly every prognosticator with a keyboard, pen, or microphone expects the trend continue for Bailey and the GOP in 2026.
But many Republicans, including Bailey himself, were surprised to walk into a Maine Township Republican organization meeting Thursday evening to see more than 100 people waiting for him in a beer garden at a Des Plaines restaurant.
“I’m literally humbled and blown away right now,” Bailey told the crowd.
Bailey’s 25 minute stump speech mostly stuck to his messages of affordability, crime, and education and criticizing Governor JB Pritzker as a “failed” governor.
But if more than 100 Republicans are coming out on a Thursday night in August in a place Bailey got hammered four years ago, are we missing something about Bailey’s standing in the suburbs?
After the event, Bailey told The Illinoize he feels different than he did four years ago.
“It’s feeling different everywhere because I think our message is finally resonating,” he said. “Four years ago when I was speaking in an event like that, I’d just say, ‘just don’t forget to vote. Don’t forget to vote.’ As people started coming up and talking and sharing their stories, that’s the glimmer of hope. That’s what I see to realize, okay, something’s happening here.”
Sources say independent polling has showed Bailey doing well in suburban counties like Will and McHenry, and struggling in DuPage, Lake, and suburban Cook.
Mark Batinick, a former suburban state representative and senior advisor at the Illinois Policy Institute, says there is a building resentment to Governor Pritzker in pockets of the suburbs.
“JB [Pritzker] is the two term governor of the state residents want to leave more than any other. He owns high gas taxes, high property taxes, increased tolls, high sales taxes, and high college tuition,” Batinick said. “Yes, he has balanced budgets. But he hasn’t done it through growth. He has done it through raising taxes every budget year. There are plenty of people looking for something different.”
But a top GOP official says while Republicans may be encouraged by Bailey, he still has a massive gap to close with Pritzker.
“The Bailey campaign needs to pick up roughly a half million more votes than they got last time to win and the ads that the Pritzker campaign is running against him now in the suburbs are really devastating to his campaign,” the official said.
The official noted that Bailey is working to boost turnout in his base, which isn’t going to be enough to defeat Pritzker and the campaign isn’t doing enough to reach moderate, independent, or disaffected Democratic voters especially in the suburbs.
And without any money to do it, the official said, makes it a nearly impossible challenge.
