How Heidner Can Win the Primary
Rick Heidner waits to speak before the Illinois Gaming Board in 2019. (Photo: Chicago Sun-Times)
As suburban businessman Rick Heidner prepares to fully roll out his Republican campaign for governor about three weeks before the start of early voting and 9 weeks before the March 17 primary, many Republicans have been scratching their heads wondering what Heidner’s message will be, how he plans to make a dent in the race in a short time, and if he can actually win the primary.
We asked around 30 Republican operatives, current and former elected officials, insiders, party officials, county chairmen, and others how they would advise Heidner to win the primary starting with no name ID, no built in base, and a new poll showing him far behind GOP frontrunner former Sen. Darren Bailey.
It’s worth pointing out, many of our insiders don’t think Heidner can win in any circumstance.
“I’ve worked races in three decades and I don’t even know who he is,” said one GOP operative. “No one besides Bailey is winning that primary.”
“He is running out of time. It is January 13th and [Heidner] is yet to publicly to announce he is even running for Governor,” said another GOP operative. That is a lot of ground to make up in a short time. We saw this four years ago with [then-Aurora Mayor Richard] Irvin. You cannot hide your way to a nomination. You have to get out and about and interact with rank-and-file Republican voters.”
“He should have started six months ago,” said another longtime consultant. “He’s running a wannabe Trump campaign, but he doesn’t have an ounce of charisma and doesn’t have any real people around him. To me, it looks like the DC consultant [working for him] is just trying to get paid. And that’s not going to work out well for him in the end.”
“[Winning] isn’t even a remote possibility,” said a former lawmaker. “I’d advise he start laying groundwork for 2030.”
“Part of the problem is that people like me barely recognize his name,” said a top GOP insider. “So, I think of the average Republican voting by name ID shows that Bailey has the advantage. Honestly, I think most Republicans aren’t taking any of them seriously because of Pritzker and all his money.”
“He would win for himself personally if he dropped out,” said a former legislator. “His past political donations will clobber him, among other issues.”
Heidner has given campaign dollars to Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, former Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, Cook County Board Chair Toni Preckwinkle, former House Speaker Michael Madgian, and numerous other Democrats.
It’s a liability many Republican insiders say may come back to haunt Heidner if he begins to gain traction.
“Donations to Brandon Johnson and Toni Preckwinkle are not gonna go over well with the GOP base,” a consultant said. “In Trump’s GOP, those are unforgivable sins.”
“Other than stealing or a sex scandal, supporting Democrats is the easiest opposition research for voters to understand to kill a candidate’s chances in a Republican primary,” said one GOP insider.
In the end, most Republicans we spoke to seem to agree, if Heidner is going to make the race competitive, he needs to start spending right away.
Heidner has reported around $385,000 in large donations since the middle of December in addition to the $1,000,000 of his own money he put into the campaign in late October. His fundraising has outpaced both Bailey and the other perceived GOP frontrunner, former Wirepoints conservative website operator and former Illinois Policy Institute staffer Ted Dabrowski.
We’re told Heidner has signaled in conversations with donors he’s willing to spend “tens of millions” of his own dollars to win the primary, too.
“He will need to spend a lot of money,” a longtime operative said. “He’ll need to run dual track ads, one attacking Bailey the other track identifying himself as the Trump candidate. It’s uphill, but Bailey has no money to defend and [Dabrowski] seems unsure what lane to occupy and hasn’t raised enough money to mount any serious earned media effort. If Heidner is serious about running and willing to spend millions, he could close the gap.”
“It all comes down to budget. If he has the money, the best play is to just bury the field in spend so they have no room to move,” said another consultant. “If his budget is more moderate, own the spaces his opponents would prefer to go to, like text and digital or social ads so they can’t play there, then finish with mail and TV. Make the message 75% anti-Pritzker and 25% Republican rah rah, and you probably gotta say nice things about Trump.”
“He needs to start spending some of his money,” said a top party insider. “Your average Republican primary voter has never heard of him. And he needs to prove that he is a conservative who is pro-life, pro-second amendment, for limited government and lower taxes and that he has the experience to govern on day one. He has to prove himself to Republicans first before focusing on appealing to moderates and swing voters for the general.”
“He’d have to put a few million in ASAP. He has to increase name ID while saying why he’s the only guy who can win which is negative on others,” said another operative. “The cheapest would be digital and he’d have to go heavy now through March 17. I’d also focus on early voters. Absentees go out in 3 weeks. I don’t know if anyone else is focusing on them. Everyone else is just running around to same old events.”
Heidner also finds himself in an awkward position, as do many statewide Republicans, with how to approach his support for Donald Trump.
While Trump is a major asset for primary voters, polls show he is a drag on GOP candidates in the city of Chicago and suburbs. Heidner has long been a Trump supporter, hosting an event with Donald Trump, Jr. at his home last year.
One operative says Heidner needs to do his best not to emulate Trump.
“He does not need to try to pull some slick moves he thinks Donald Trump would say or do,” said an operative. “As a matter of fact, he needs to get away from all of that bull***t and be the leader who has built himself up to what he is now. Let his own success as a businessman who has had to deal with politicians throughout his career, trying to stifle him all the way, and all it took to make it, define him.”
But polling shows a vast majority of GOP primary voters are undecided, which, some insiders say, leaves him a lane to make a splash before March 17.
“It seems like the consensus is that most people know Bailey can’t win in November, but the other candidates haven’t proven that they can either,” said a top party official. “I think in order to pull it off, Heidner is going to have to flood the zone. That means a lot of TV, [streaming], digital, and mail. Some endorsements from high-profile Republicans would help as well.”
“He must have a good rollout,” said another insider. “Get on Chicago TV. Call radio shows around the state. Give us someone to root for. Be genuine and dont use recycled talking points.”
“Be the guy with a plan. Not the DOGE s**t or the nerdy message, but a real plan,” said another high level Republican official. We don’t need to nominate a guy who is going to get creamed again. We want to stop Pritzker. He has a ton of baggage but has the money to get past that. We’ll see if he can.”
