How to Get the GOP Back in Contention
Then-Sen. Darren Bailey, the 2022 GOP nominee for Governor, takes notes before his WGN-TV debate with Gov. JB Pritzker. (Photo: Chicago Tribune)
Much has been made of the struggle for Illinois Republicans in Illinois.
Shut out of statewide elections since 2014
No U.S. Senate victory since 2010.
Super minorities in the House and Senate.
Three out of 14 seats in the congressional delegation.
It’s been tough sledding, and many politicians, pundits, activists, and insiders have been quick to point out why Republicans are struggling, but what will it actually take to dig out of the hole?
In multiple conversations with Republican activists, officials, and strategists, three appear to be three specific targets for improving GOP campaigns: messaging, fundraising, and courting suburban voters.
Former Illinois Republican Party chair Pat Brady says Republican candidates need to begin hammering home a message on cost of living.
“The message for everybody needs to be affordability. It’s just getting too expensive to live in this state. And I think that message resonates everywhere,” Brady said. I would pound on affordability. I think and there are people that are doing this already, but they need to be more forward thinking on it.”
Some Republican insiders say elections around the country last month, where Democrats dominated Republicans buoyed by affordability messaging, should be a framework for Illinois Republicans.
“Democrats can and should own how expensive it is to live here,” said one GOP operative, who asked not to be identified by name. “JB Pritzker should be on the hook for property taxes and energy bills and gasoline prices and every nickel and dime thing Democrats have done to make it so gosh darn expensive to live here. But we aren’t doing that and it’s driving me crazy.”
Since Bruce Rauner’s cash disappeared from the GOP playing field in 2018, Republicans have struggled to compete with Democrats in fundraising, especially as Pritzker, the billionaire, and labor unions, have kept the accounts of Democratic officials and candidates flush with cash.
Former Rep. Mark Batinick, who now advises GOP candidates and conducts polling, says Republican leaders need to present donors with real plans for turning the party around.
“Power gets you money, money gets you power. So you have to break that cycle. Here’s how you break the cycle: you have to lead. You have to show the solutions,” Batinick said. “If you look at the at the last Chicago mayoral campaign, business opened its wallets for [Paul] Vallas. Tens of millions, right? They saw a path. That’s what you need to do. We’ve become this situation where candidates want to sit around and wait for somebody to write them a seven figure check before they start doing something. Go prove yourself. Prove yourself at the Lincoln Day dinners. Prove yourself at the Chamber of Commerce meetings. Prove yourself in all those low places. Prove yourself with the press conferences. Prove yourself taking on people. You need to do that first. That’s how you’re going to get the the cycle started. That’s how you get the money flowing.”
But why would business buy in to a party that has found itself irrelevant in state government?
“We have to show them that step one is breaking the supermajorities so we can at least be a check on the out-of-control spending we’re seeing from JB Pritzker and the Democrats,” said a longtime GOP insider, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Whoever wins the gubernatorial primary needs to show they have a pulse and can capitalize on JB Pritzker’s approval numbers that are underwater. But nobody is even making calls to donors anymore. I don’t know what the hell they’re doing.”
Brady says addressing suburban voters starts with Republican candidates accepting the drag President Donald Trump presents for the GOP in the northeastern corner of the state.
“He’s very unpopular. You have recognize that there is a problem. There is a problem at the top of the ticket,” he said. “That being said, I think there is opportunity for growth. 400,000 people [who voted for Joe Biden in 2020] didn’t vote for Kamala Harris. Well, those are potential Republicans. Those are kind of the “Daley Democrat” that would cross over and vote for a Republican. But Trump is so unpopular, they’re never going to recover from that. So I think the big move, if there’s going to be one, not be this cycle, but 2 or 4 years from now.”
Republican insiders appear split on the party’s chances in 2026. Some believe there’s room for improvement over disastrous cycles like 2018 and 2022, but others fear fields of lackluster candidates for statewide offices combined with fundraising troubles and Trump’s numbers in the city and suburbs make it a tall hill to climb for the GOP next year.
